RESEARCH GOVERNANCE / VERSION 1.1
How Structure Lens turns market data into a testable decision framework.
This page documents the inputs, calculations, decision rules and limitations behind our live market regime and daily Bitcoin outlook. The objective is reproducibility: a reader should be able to see what moved a conclusion, what would confirm it and what would make it wrong.
01 / SCOPE
A framework for disciplined questions—not a price-prediction machine.
Structure Lens starts with observable market state: price, leverage, aggressive flow, options positioning, sentiment and selected network or market-breadth data. Those observations are normalized into bounded features, combined into a transparent score, and translated into conditional scenarios. No single indicator is permitted to decide the conclusion.
The output is designed to answer four questions in order: What regime is visible? Is leverage confirming or weakening the move? Where can the thesis be tested? How much uncertainty remains? A score summarizes evidence; it does not forecast a guaranteed return or replace an investor's own objectives and loss limits.
The live terminal and daily note use related but distinct models. The live terminal emphasizes a stable five-factor regime score. The daily note adds capped contributions from market breadth, news tone and current volatility so that the same market can be viewed through a one-day risk horizon.
02 / LIVE REGIME MODEL
Five signal families, with the exact weights disclosed.
Each component is capped from 0 to 100 before weighting. Capping prevents one extreme input from overwhelming every other source of evidence. Inputs use the active chart window unless a card explicitly states a shorter interval.
Price momentum
clamp(50 + period return × 4, 0, 100)Measures directional progress over the selected historical window. The dashboard separately displays realized volatility, maximum drawdown and 24-hour range position so that return is not mistaken for trend quality.
LIMITA strong return can be late-cycle or liquidation-driven. Momentum requires leverage and flow confirmation.Leverage quality
clamp(55 − |funding %| × 650 + OI change % × 1.2, 0, 100)Rewards orderly participation and penalizes expensive funding. Price and open interest are also classified as trend expansion, short covering, new short build or deleveraging.
LIMITOpen interest has a long and short side; direction comes from its relationship with price and flow, not OI alone.Aggressor flow
taker buy volume ÷ (taker buy + taker sell volume) × 100Estimates which side is crossing the spread for immediate execution. Persistent readings above 50% support demand; persistent readings below 50% support active supply.
LIMITThe current reading is venue-specific and short-horizon. One burst of market orders is not durable demand.Options balance
clamp(75 − |put/call ratio − 70| × 0.7, 0, 100)Uses aggregate BTC option open interest to identify balance and the largest call and put concentrations. These levels frame observable areas for confirmation or rejection.
LIMITOpen interest does not reveal who owns the options or a dealer's net gamma. A wall is a concentration, not guaranteed support or resistance.Sentiment
Alternative.me Fear & Greed value, bounded 0–100Adds a behavioral regime to price and positioning. The path and persistence of the index are more useful than one isolated value.
LIMITSentiment is contextual and often contrarian. Extreme fear can continue during a structural decline; greed can persist during a healthy trend.FORMULA / LIVE
Live composite formula
The visible regime score is a weighted arithmetic sum of the five capped components. Values are rounded only after aggregation.
Score = 0.30 × Momentum + 0.20 × Leverage quality + 0.20 × Aggressor flow + 0.15 × Options balance + 0.15 × SentimentConstructive ≥ 64 · Balanced 40–63 · Defensive ≤ 39. Confidence is separate from direction: it rises with successful live sources and cross-signal agreement, and should never be read as the probability of profit.
WORKED EXAMPLE
Worked example: why a positive tape can remain Balanced
Assume a seven-day return of +2.5%, funding of +0.008%, open-interest growth of +4.0%, taker buying of 52%, a 70% put/call reading and a Fear & Greed score of 46.
50 + 2.5 × 460.055 − 0.008 × 650 + 4.0 × 1.254.6Observed taker-buy share52.075 − |70 − 70| × 0.775.0Observed provider score46.0Weighted result: 57.5, or Balanced. Price is advancing, but leverage and sentiment have not earned a Constructive classification. A higher-conviction view would require acceptance above resistance with sustained buy flow and non-accelerating funding; a loss of support with OI still elevated would invalidate the constructive interpretation.
03 / DATA PROVENANCE
What is collected, how often it changes and where it can fail.
Structure Lens reads public endpoints and does not receive a privileged exchange feed. The market endpoint requests providers independently, caches the combined response for 20 seconds, and records how many sources succeeded. The live funding monitor requests a new observation every 30 seconds; sentiment history refreshes every five minutes.
| Layer | Provider | Cadence | Fields used | Known limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot & futures | Binance USDⓈ-M Futures | On request; 20-second response cache | BTC/ETH ticker, candles, funding, OI, taker ratio, long/short ratio | One venue can diverge from the broader market; historical OI depth depends on the API interval. |
| Options | Deribit public API | On request inside the market bundle | BTC option OI and volume by instrument and strike | Aggregate positions do not identify owner direction, dealer inventory or expiry-specific gamma. |
| Market breadth | CoinGecko global API | On request; 20-second response cache | Total market cap, volume, 24-hour change, BTC and ETH dominance | Asset coverage and venue pricing methodology can differ from an institutional benchmark. |
| Sentiment | Alternative.me | Provider updates daily; page cache five minutes | Fear & Greed value, classification and history | A provider composite is contextual; Structure Lens does not reconstruct its private weighting. |
| Bitcoin network | mempool.space | On request; 20-second response cache | Mempool size, recommended fees and difficulty adjustment | Transaction batching, temporary spam and fee policy can distort raw transaction counts. |
| Event risk | Publisher RSS feeds | Five-minute news cache | Headline, summary, source, publication time and category | Keyword tone is a risk flag, not a factual verdict or directional trading signal. |
Provider attribution identifies the origin of the observation and does not imply sponsorship. Exchange and third-party terms remain controlling. When a provider fails, its stored interface fallback is not counted as live evidence and the page reports partial coverage.
04 / DAILY NOTE
How the 09:05 JST Bitcoin outlook is assembled.
The daily report freezes the latest complete evidence at 00:00 UTC (09:00 JST) and publishes five minutes later. The URL can retrieve prior report dates for up to one year, so the analysis remains tied to the information that was available at that cutoff rather than silently changing with the current market.
Freeze the evidence
Load the seven-day price and OI window ending at the cutoff, the latest funding and flow readings, options positioning, market breadth, network conditions and eligible headlines from the preceding 24 hours.
Cap each contribution
Trend contribution is capped at ±32 points across return, range location and taker flow. Leverage, crowding, breadth, sentiment and headline tone have smaller explicit caps so one exceptional print cannot dictate the result.
Classify, then test
A bounded 8–92 score is Constructive at 62 or above, Defensive at 38 or below, and Balanced otherwise. The note then states the evidence that would confirm and invalidate each scenario.
Size the range from volatility
One-day sigma is annualized realized volatility divided by √365, with a 0.9% price floor. Option walls and the session high or low constrain scenario levels where available.
Reduce confidence for uncertainty
Confidence combines source coverage, agreement among price, OI and broad-market direction, and a volatility penalty. It measures evidence consistency—not forecast accuracy.
Scenario weights are structured hypotheses, not calibrated probabilities
The base case receives 34–50% depending on how far the score sits from neutral and how volatile the market is. The remaining weight is split between bull and bear cases according to the directional edge. The three displayed weights always sum to 100%, but no backtested hit rate or guaranteed likelihood is claimed.
Every scenario contains a price range, a market-mechanism thesis, a confirmation rule and an invalidation rule. Readers should compare the potential loss in the lower-probability case with the expected benefit in the preferred case; probability alone is not a risk budget.
05 / FAILURE MODES
Where the framework can be wrong—or become temporarily unusable.
Venue concentration
Binance and Deribit are liquid reference venues, not the entire market. Local liquidations, contract rules or outages can make their data unrepresentative.
Timing mismatch
Funding, options, sentiment and news update at different speeds. A fast price shock can occur before slower inputs reset.
Hidden positioning
Public open interest does not reveal beneficial ownership, cross-venue hedges or off-exchange exposure. Direction is inferred conditionally, never observed perfectly.
Regime breaks
Security incidents, regulation, custody failures and macro shocks can invalidate historical relationships immediately. Price gaps can bypass displayed levels.
Fallback state
Static interface values allow the site to remain legible during provider failure. They are marked through source status and reduced coverage and must not be treated as a current quote.
Model risk
Weights and thresholds are editorial heuristics, not fitted trading parameters. No backtest, Sharpe ratio or performance history is represented.
06 / EDITORIAL GOVERNANCE
Who publishes the analysis, how automation is used and how corrections work.
Responsible publisher
Structure Lens Research Desk is the house byline and publishing identity responsible for this site. It is not presented as a registered investment adviser or licensed research analyst.
Automation disclosure
APIs, deterministic calculations, rule-based scenario text and language-assistance tools are used to produce and localize pages. Automation does not create a claim of certainty, expertise or source verification that the evidence cannot support.
Source standard
Numerical claims should link to the originating exchange or provider methodology wherever practical. Secondary reporting is used for event context, not as a substitute for market data.
Corrections
Material errors are checked against the underlying source. Corrections that change an analytical conclusion are noted on the relevant page. Reports should not have dates changed merely to appear fresh.
Advertising independence
Advertising, if approved and enabled, is visually separated from research. Payment cannot purchase a favorable signal, ranking or analytical conclusion. Sponsored material will be labeled.
Reader responsibility
Analysis is general information. Readers must verify live quotes, evaluate venue and custody risk, and choose position size from their own objectives, horizon and capacity for loss.
VERSION CONTROL
Methodology change log
Published exact live-score formulas, source cadence, worked example, missing-data rules, automation disclosure and daily scenario construction.
Introduced the fixed-cutoff daily evidence framework and explicit confirmation/invalidation rules.
CITATIONS
Primary documentation
These links describe the public interfaces or provider methods used by the site. Structure Lens calculations and interpretations remain our own.
FROM METHOD TO EVIDENCE
Apply the framework to live data
This methodology describes an analytical publication. It is not personalized investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or evidence of historical or future performance.